Macro Bulletin- January 2021

Inflation

• The inflation rate as measured Consumer Price Index (CPI) cools off to 6.93 percent in November’20 from 7.6 percent in October’20. However, the inflation rate is above the upper band of 6 percent.

• Food inflation rate stood at 9.43 percent.
• Pressure on vegetable prices eased from 22.08 percent in October’20 to 15.63 percent in November’20, and on pulses, it stands at 17.91 percent.

Industrial Output

• Industrial output as measured Index Industrial Production (IIP) registered a positive growth rate of 3.63 percent in October’20.
• Within IIP, electricity registered the highest growth rate at 11.25 percent followed by manufacturing at 3.48 percent. On the other hand, mining and quarrying contracted by 1.51 percent in October’20.

• PMI index for the manufacturing sector stood at 56.3, and for the service sector at 53.7
• Core sector output registered a contraction of 2.73 percent in November’20 compared to -0.94 percent in October’20.

External Sector

• As on 18^th December 2020, India’s forex reserves stood at USD 580.1 billion

• Rupee strengthened against USD in December’20 at Rs 73.59 per dollar compared to Rs 74.22 per dollar in November’20.

Foreign Trade

• India registered a trade deficit of USD 15.7 billion in December’20.

• In December’20, exports registered a contraction of 0.81 percentwhereas imports registered a positive growth rate of 7.6 percent.

Capital Market

• In December’20, SENSEX rose by 8.16 percent to end the month at 47751.33, whereas NIFTY rose by 7.8 percent to end at 13981.75.
• FIIs/FPIs were net buyers in the Indian market with the net investment in equity and debt market at USD 8.5 billion
• Mutual funds remained net sellers with net investment in equity and debt market at USD (-) 987.75

Fiscal Scenario

• Revenue receipts of the Central government up to November’20 stood at Rs 8.1 lakh crore, which is 40.2 percent of the budget estimate for FY21
• Revenue expenditure stood at Rs 16.6 lakh crore making it 63.3 percent of the budget estimate for FY21. Capital expenditure up to November’20 stood at Rs 2.4 lakh crore, which is 58.5 percent of the budget estimate.
• Fiscal deficit shot to Rs 10.7 lakh crore in November’20, making it 135 percent of the budget estimate for FY21.