Bank Nifty has also closed above its 50 day SMA, for the first since early August, a signal that both the major benchmark indices whose options are the most actively traded, are geared to leap higher.
Seven weeks after coming off from the record peak in December 2022, Nifty is back within its vicinity. Nifty has now pushed above a one month range that had kept a lid on directional moves, and kept VIX near record lows. While this range breakout gave an optimism, the bearish overhang that had prevailed through August, also led some traders to watch with suspicion that successive days of close beyond two standard deviations from the 20 day SMA.
Traditionally this calls for a turn lower or a consolidation. However, what has emboldened the bulls is that we now also see a weekly close above the 7 week SMA. Further, with just 23% of NSE 500 stocks in the 5% vicinity of their respective all-time highs, the market is only in the initial stages of a broad based rally. We are confident of continuation of uptrend, with Nifty’s upside target raised to 21,200. Sensex is also similarly poised with oscillators near the upper boundary indicating strength, and MACD pushing above the signal line along with a centre line crossover.
Meanwhile, Bank Nifty has also closed above its 50 day SMA, for the first since early August, a signal that both the major benchmark indices whose options are the most actively traded, are geared to leap higher. Bank Nifty has closed just within the Bollinger band’s upper extremity, and any dips to the 50 day SMA, now placed at 44,974 could be used to enter an uptrend.
USDINR on the other hand, was gearing for 83.44 breach, has multiple attempts to do so has found rejection trades, indicating exhaustion. We are hence watchful of a reversal, but until 82.93 is breached, we may still harbour hopes of upswing, as the months leading upto general elections have traditionally seen USDINR going up. Towards this end, we will keep the 83.44-86 move in the horizon, while waiting for adequate dips to re enter longs.
First published in Financial Express
