Gold and silver delivered an extraordinary performance in 2025, surging to multiple record highs on both global and Indian markets. Globally, gold climbed nearly 70%, breaking the $4,500 /oz mark after breaching $4,000 in October, while silver skyrocketed by over 128%, topping $80 /oz.
In India, the momentum was even more pronounced. MCX gold futures surged from around ₹75,000 to nearly ₹1,39,000–₹1,40,000 per 10 g, representing a nearly 78% rise, while silver futures jumped approximately 144%, approaching the ₹2.5 lakh/kg mark. Domestic retail prices mirrored this trend, with gold and silver reaching historic highs amid safe-haven demand, robust industrial requirements, and a weakening rupee.
What supported gold and silver’s extraordinary gains in 2025?
Gold’s extraordinary ascent was fuelled by a potent mix of macroeconomic forces and investor behaviour. Persistent expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve rate cuts lowered real yields, reducing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding bullion. Simultaneously, the U.S. dollar softened, making gold more affordable for international buyers. Heightened geopolitical tensions—from Middle East conflicts to Venezuelan oil tanker blockades—fuelled safe-haven demand. Underpinning this rally were sustained central bank buying and record ETF inflows, as institutions shifted reserves away from dollar assets towards bullion.
Silver outperformed with even greater brilliance, driven by both investment fervor and industrial demand. A structural supply deficit, now in its fifth consecutive year, tightened markets significantly. This shortage coincided with surging industrial usage in solar, EVs, electronics, and AI infrastructure, sending consumption to record highs. Meanwhile, silver’s official listing as a U.S. critical mineral and China’s implementation of strict export controls along with strong ETF inflows, intensified the squeeze on available stocks. The combined impact of monetary easing, investor momentum, and real-world demand propelled precious metals to historic peaks.
Will gold move to $5000 an ounce and silver to test $100 in 2026
In 2026, gold may climb towards the $5,000/oz milestone. Major banks like Bank of America ($5,000), J.P. Morgan ($5,055), Goldman Sachs (~$4,900), and UBS (targeting $5,000 by Q3 and up to $5,400 in a bull case) are forecasting significant upside amid a climate of rate cuts, a soft dollar, central bank buying, and geopolitical risk. Survey data shows nearly 70% of institutional investors expect gold to rise, with 36% predicting it will breach $5,000 by end of 2026.
Silver is not far behind, with strong momentum pointing towards a test of the $100/oz level. Technical breakouts, structural supply deficits, and surging green-tech and industrial demand are key drivers. While consensus forecasts cluster in the $70–90 range, multiple bullish scenarios envision silver reaching—or even exceeding—$100 if macro conditions remain favourable.
Demand and price outlook in India
With the global bullish momentum carrying into 2026, India’s bullion market is primed for further strength—especially as INR weakness adds another layer of support. Local gold prices may gravitate towards ₹1.50 lakh per 10 g over the next 12–18 months, fuelled by persistent macroeconomic stress and structural factors that remain intact. The depreciation of the rupee enhances this dynamic. If INR weakens, imported gold and silver become costlier in local currency terms, boosting domestic prices and attracting investors looking to hedge currency risk.
Physical demand is likely to remain robust. This is due to strong seasonal purchases and a growing trend of bullion held as a wealth preservation asset by households. Additionally, new Indian policy reforms—such as allowing pension funds to invest in gold ETFs—are widening demand channels and institutionalising gold ownership. With central banks, retail consumers, and industrial users all contributing, physical offtake should stay elevated through 2026, reinforcing domestic prices amid global tailwinds and a softer rupee.
Investor strategy for 2026
For those already holding gold and silver, the outlook remains broadly positive, supported by global monetary easing, geopolitical uncertainty, and structural demand. However, after the spectacular rally of 2025, prudence suggests a balanced approach, booking partial profits to lock in gains while maintaining core holdings as a hedge against volatility and inflation.
However, preferred investment modes will depend on individual goals. For long-term wealth preservation, physical gold and silver remain attractive, especially in India, where cultural affinity and festive demand persist. Yet, for liquidity and ease of trade, gold ETFs and MFs offer compelling advantages, including transparency and lower storage costs. Silver exposure can be diversified through ETFs or futures for those comfortable with higher volatility. Systematic investment in gold via monthly plans can also smooth out price fluctuations.
In short, investors should avoid chasing short-term spikes and instead adopt a disciplined strategy—retain a strategic allocation to bullion, use dips for accumulation, and leverage paper instruments for flexibility. Gold and silver will continue to shine, but smart positioning will define success in 2026.
